Stikkordarkiv: Leif Anders Thorsrud

Are narratives associated with economic fundamentals or better understood as capturing the market’s animal spirits?

L og Vav Leif A. Thorsrud og Vegard H. Larsen, forskningsenheten, Norges Bank.

This is the last blog post, in a series of three, where we use text as data and take a narrative perspective to describe and understand business cycle fluctuations. In the preceding posts we have shown how a topic decomposition of economic news could be used to track the business cycle in the US, Japan, and euro area, and we have investigated whether or not narratives relevant for growth go viral. Les videre

Business cycle narratives

av Leif A. Thorsrud og Vegard H. Larsen, forskningsenheten, Norges Bank.

L og VHumans are storytellers. Complex explanations are often condensed to simple narratives, and some go viral. Can they even have economic impact? In recent research at Norges Bank we have explored to what extent narratives are informative for economic developments. In this blog post, the first in a series of three, we describe how narratives can be quantified and used to describe business cycle fluctuations in the three major economies; the US, Japan, and the euro area.  Les videre